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What If Things Are Actually Okay?

This article was originally published on RealMoney at 7:30am EDT on March 2nd, 2016 On February 16 we published an article outlining the reasons for optimism, despite record pessimism about the economy and stock market. This article is a follow up on that piece, in a simple point-by-point format, specifically in regard to the items we discussed two weeks ago. 1. Economic Data –…

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The War of 1,812

This article was originally published on RealMoney Pro at 10:00am EDT on Feb 16th, 2016 I fully believe we are in the midst of a correction and not something worse (a recession/crash/depression/collapse). Apologies in advance; this is a long one. 1. Economic data do not support the recession story. There are a lot of headlines suggesting we (both the US and the rest…

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Bearish Sentiment — Time For Patience, Not Panic

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 10:00am EDT on Jan 25th, 2016 The current correction we are experiencing has been much scarier than others in the post-crisis era. No corner of the market has been spared. Both professional and individual investors seem to be confused about, well….just about everything, including what exactly is causing the selloff. Headlines seem somehow more ominous today…

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QE Is Alive and Well

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 10:00am EDT on Dec 28th, 2015 We hear that Quantitative Easing (i.e. fiscal stimulus) has ended and it must be assumed that without training wheels, the economy will fall down and scrape its knees on the sidewalk. How easily we forget that the economy seemed to get along okay prior to the housing/credit boom of…

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2015 Can’t End Soon Enough

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 5:00pm EDT on Dec 21st, 2015 This year has been enormously challenging for us – both as investors and as advisors. While it is some consolation that 2015 has been difficult for many professionals, it’s really become a year to which we’ll happily say goodbye. Though major U.S. stock market indexes remain within 5% of…

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Putin On the Ritz

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 11:00am EDT on Oct 30th, 2015 2015 has been choppy for just about every asset class, perhaps none more so than shares of anything connected to commodities. Emerging markets have suffered with weakening currencies—against a stable US Dollar—and threats (though no actual evidence) of global deflation. If growth is slowing or turning negative…

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Watch What the Fed Says, Not What It Does

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com at 4:00pm EST on September 14, 2015 These are the possible Fed outcomes being considered by the investment community, as I see it: 1) Fed raises its benchmark Fed Funds rate, citing “It’s time” and/or the need to have ammunition in place (i.e. the ability to lower rates) should they need it in the near future.…

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Hope Is Not An Investment Strategy

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on August 21st at 8:00am EDT This is something clients love to hear: When I tell you that “hope is not part of an investment strategy,” I’m saying I’ve got a bulletproof plan. A plan immune to external forces and exogenous events. This is the plan nobody else has. Everybody else is probably just hoping their…

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Icahn’t Believe It’s Not Better (The Yield On HYG)

This article was originally published on RealMoney.com on July 27th at 1:00pm EDT The lurking dangers of junk bonds have found their way into the headlines. Carl Icahn’s conversation with crucifixion of Blackrock’s Larry Fink last week certainly didn’t help matters. The entire exchange can be found here. People are pretty worked up. So what’s the big deal? The big deal, as…

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